Department Chair

Frederick Floss, Ph. D.

Date of Award

5-2018

Access Control

Open Access

Degree Name

Applied Economics, M.A.

Department

Economics and Finance Department

Advisor

Frederick Floss, Ph. D.

Department Home page

https://economics.buffalostate.edu

First Reader

Frederick Floss, Ph. D.

Second Reader

Theodore F. Byrley, Ph. D. , CFA

Third Reader

Victor Kasper, Jr, Ph. D.

Abstract

My thesis is that macro factors have been important to the change of the gold price, but have had a differential impact in three factors: Gross Global Product (GGP), real interest rate, and U.S. dollar index (USDI). I estimated the 1st difference of the gold model to determine the impact of macro factors on the price of gold per quarter. The model was estimated using the OLS approach the sample size was 148. I make use of data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic data. The result was that 1st difference model had statistically insignificant coefficients. I tested the model for 1st differences gold price in and found the regression of the coefficients support my hypothesis relationship between the real price of gold and the real GGP, the real interest rate, and the real USDI in the 1st difference form.

The outcome of this course is my written thesis. My anticipation is that my thesis can be validated by my investigation, and I expected to find several unique macro factors affecting the real price of gold that have affected future prediction. The evaluation of this course will be the assessment of my thesis and oral defense (with Power Points) by my thesis committee.

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